There is often a high degree of uncertainty about the future. Scenario evaluation questions aim to reduce that uncertainty by making judgements about the probabilities of different future outcomes. These questions are often focussed on considering whether and when specific events will come to pass, or involve narrowing the myriad of future possibilities down to the most likely possibility. Example scenario evaluation questions include: When will a specific capability reach technological maturity? Or, Will the Government of a particular country still be in power next year?
People can find it uncomfortable being asked to make these kinds of specific forecasts. This is why most judgements provided about the future events are vague and open to interpretation. As a consequence, those who speak with certainty often carry a disproportionate influence, regardless of their track record. But large scale studies of forecasting, such as the Good Judgment Project, show that human experts are largely outperformed by non-experts following structured forecasting approaches. Aleph Insights uses structured approaches to build forecasts, ensuring that predictions are explicit, evidence-based and measurable.
Almost all forecasts are imperfect. By helping you apply structured approaches to answering scenario evaluation questions, we aim to help you understand how confident you should be about a prediction, and provide you with a competitive advantage when it comes to making decisions (see decision analysis questions).